Comments on: Piper Jaffray estimates iPhone shortage could last through August

By: Gabriel Mak

Gabriel Mak — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:53:48 +0000

There is a difference between the Wii and the iphone. Sony and Microsoft does not come out with new gaming consoles every month, so the high demand for the Wii is warranted, therefore the strategy works. For the iphone, however, phones come out every month. If they hold out for higher demand, people will just get the next NEW phone coming out. Blackberry and Nokia are both coming out with new phones soon. The iphone is not worth the hype. Its just another Apple product. It is well rounded when it comes to technology but nothing really stands out except for the OS and the touch UI. Given the overall price tag (including the 2 year contract), it is not worth the time or the money to wait for the iphone. The iphone will be come ancient history in about 9 months when Apple releases info about iPhone 3rd generation.

By: Constable Odo

Constable Odo — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:07:56 +0000

The he is Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray.

By: Glenn

Glenn — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:46:23 +0000

I know people who waited on line Friday morning for over 6 hours. I also know a person who walked right into a store on Saturday afternoon and picked one up. I also know another person who went to a store yesterday and picked one up too.

You may have to do a little research but they aren’t that hard to find.

By: lrd

lrd — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:06:43 +0000

As for RIM’s Bold = yesterday’s news.

By: lrd

lrd — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 16:04:49 +0000

I think this shortage stuff is being made up so that people would dfelay their purchases until the Bold makes it on the scene. I know it sounds strange’ but instutional investors want to see both companies prosper and in that way they’ll doubly propser.

By: Partners in Grime

Partners in Grime — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:29:29 +0000

My concern in the very beginning … can Apple make enough of these things?

By: William

William — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:49:14 +0000

This “shortage” scheme worked wonders for the Wii all over the world. Especially at Christmas time. They’re still in high demand.

The best benefit to a cooling-off period, however, will be the sanity check that it induces. Fresh new BlackBerries arriving in the field during the waiting period may be enough to shake some Apples out of the tree, I’m sure. Perhaps customers will reach for low hanging fruit rather than wait forever… (I’m not sure how long I can keep that metaphor going…)

On the other hand: If you don’t mind taking out a 2-3 year mortgage to own a device which will be obsolete in about a year from now, then waiting in line on the street for hours each day seems a good investment to me.

By: Sheed

Sheed — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:38:32 +0000

Follow up special:
I did direct fulfillment on Tuesday and I just got a call from at&t telling me the phone is in today. 3 day turnaround is very good. Hopefully I like this thing or else it’s off to ebay.

By: Jeff B.

Jeff B. — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 21:00:33 +0000

See now, if there’s a shortage then it’s not waiting for. Any phone worth waiting for will have ample quantities available to the buying public.

By: dondgc

dondgc — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 20:14:22 +0000

By the way – Piper Jaffray is not a he or a she – that’s the company name of an investment banking firm.

By: Antonio

Antonio — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:03:14 +0000

I picked up a 16 GB black iPhone today at the Pittsburgh Shadyside store. Piece of cake. There was a line (I waited about an hour). The set up was quick, however (although I have no idea why they are doing this stupid activation in the store thing–silly).

FYI–the phone rocks completely. 3G speeds are very good, if not great, and the hardware is amazing.

By: Constable Odo

Constable Odo — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:01:08 +0000

I’d like to know what he is basing the shortages on. He must have a very good contact in Apple’s supply chain or maybe a spy in Foxconn. He can’t tell whether there will be shortages, because he doesn’t know how long demand for the iPhone will last. Maybe some other company will come along with a better phone than the iPhone. If everyone stops buying iPhones, then they’ll be no shortage. I don’t know why these tidbits of speculative information are being mentioned. More FUD to confuse investors.

Gene Munster also disagreed with Apple on them really selling one million iPhones. I think he guessing about information he’s not privy to.

By: dondgc

dondgc — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 16:14:48 +0000

@DavidB

You might want to go back and check Rogers again – I couldn’t find any reference to a July launch date for the Bold on their site. All I found was “If you would like to be notified when this device become available” (sic), with the option to be put on a mailing list.

Maybe a specific launch date is there and I did not see it. Please post a link.

By: DavidB

DavidB — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:13:49 +0000

“crushing the dreams of would-be iPhone 3G owners everywhere.”
OH MY GOD Josh. Come on, what sensationalist drivel. It’s JUST a Jesus phone, not like it’s oxygen or water or some other life essential. I laugh at all the idiots who just MUST HAVE some latest gadget, and whine like they’re dying or something if they can’t have it NOW. But it’s the ME ME ME generation, so no surprise really.

By: DavidB

DavidB — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:10:33 +0000

@Evilhomer:
Perhaps YOU should check TMO Germany or Rogers Canada (both still stating a July launch) before you imply that it’s RIM holding up launching the Bold!

By: Evilhomer

Evilhomer — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:58:25 +0000

I love the way everyone blames AT&T and Apple for RIM’s shortcomings. RIM is having hardware and software isues. Lately, they’ve had a problem keeping their own servers up. I suppose that’s Apple’s fault too.

You Blackberry fanboys are going to have to put the blame where it lies. Directly in RIMS lap. If it were just AT&T refusing to lauch the Bold, it would already be out on other carriers. Quit blaming the iPhone for all your woes…

By: Sheed

Sheed — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:58:04 +0000

I ordered a white one direct fullfillment 3 days ago. They asked me for my e-mail address in order to alert when they ship it and when it’s delivered, I thought? Could I possibly be in for a long wait?

By: dondgc

dondgc — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:55:52 +0000

@ agent37x

Blame Apple? For what? For making a wildly popular phone that they can’t make fast enough?

The nearest APPLE store that has a 16 gig black iphone in stock is 450 miles from me – so it isn’t like Apple stores are swimming in oversupply.

I guess they could have just held the phone off the market for three months while they stockpiled the number of phones it will take to satisfy demand. Would THAT have been a sound business decision?

At least they were able to announce the phone and get it to market. If only some of their competitors could do the same.

By: agent37x

agent37x — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:06:14 +0000

@MadMike – sadly it doesn’t work that way. It isn’t “first ordered, first delivered”. I’ve heard that the differences are usually the model. The 16g white is not nearly as backordered as the black models. Also, your store is supposed to call you when it comes. Not sure why 611 would tell you it’s delivered…and as far as I know, they can’t ship a phone directly to a customer, only to the stores.

I know everyone wants to get all angry, but the delay in shipping isn’t the fault of AT&T here. Blame Apple, they’re the ones who decided a shortage of their flagship device in their partner stores was a sound business decision.

By: Pom

Pom — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:02:42 +0000

I have a FAN. They are available through the business channel.

By: bob

bob — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:58:42 +0000

@MadMike: It all depends on the phone you ordered. The people you saw could have been picking up 8GB Black or 16GB white, which are less popular than the 16GB black. The same situation is going on in my town, one of my buddies ordered the 16GB black from AT&T on launch day and still doesn’t have it, meanwhile a friend who ordered the 16GB white on Saturday after the launch got hers yesterday.

By: MadMike

MadMike — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:53:34 +0000

@Paco Loco:
Direct Fulfillment isn’t working flawlessly. I was the 2nd person at my local AT&T store to order the iPhone on launch day. This AT&T Store never answers the phone, so I called 611 and they said it was delivered. So I go to the store, and its not there. It still says “pending”. Yet, in line to get to a cashier were 2 people picking up Direct Fulfillment iPhones and neither of those people were in line on Friday. AT&T gave me a$50 credit for my trouble and they told me they will “look into it” and if I don’t have it by Monday that they will give me another $150 credit, re-order the phone and have it shipped directly to me. But, it is some major bull they are pulling here.

By: bob

bob — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:42:50 +0000

The latest report shows that RIM is having trouble with the configuration of the radios on the Bold, although you’d love to believe that AT&T was pushing it back so it doesn’t get slept on during the iPhone sales, that isn’t the case.

By: mikeypants

mikeypants — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:09:13 +0000

@ Paco Loco

It’s really hard to proof ones own work, especially if it is not a hard copy.

By: Paco Loco

Paco Loco — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:49:29 +0000

Great blog. “They’re good from some iphone cases..” Awesome job on taking 5 seconds to re-read before submitting.

btw, direct fulfillment has been working flawlessly over at AT&T. Guaranteed delivery rather than rushing to Apple stores early in the morning only to find out you have a FAN discount & can’t get one.

By: BaxterB

BaxterB — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:49:21 +0000

This is true just look at the wii it sold out so quickly everyone wanted one this will just generate more hype for it. It will look more exclusive.

By: Akalucky

Akalucky — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:19:52 +0000

Apple is playing a delicate balancing game. With the latest and greatest phones coming out each day you want to sell your product before the next better phone comes out. If folks are not going to be able to get their hands on an iphone for the next month – I’m thinking a lot of folks might just wait and see what the new Blackberry handsets have to offer or maybe the Andorid handsets due out this fall. I think Apple maybe shooting themselves in the foot.

By: Carmen

Carmen — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:05:47 +0000

Interesting, wondering if this is in any way connected to the fact that apple has quotas restrictions. If we read back to previous BGR postings it was noted that stores could only sell x amount each day. When they run out for that day that was it.EVEN though they had them in stock. Hummmm it is a way to hype things up lets see …the sky is falling….

By: wtimadams

wtimadams — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:54:00 +0000

Hey now… I’M a redheaded stepchild!

By: ChrisNYC

ChrisNYC — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:47:09 +0000

He’s a good analyst.